ME-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Maine District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced to the general

Chellie Pingree incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

Ronald C. Russell

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentChellie Pingree

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Chellie Pingree · DemocratChance to win after the final ranked-choice round, between the two named candidates

DEM Chellie Pingree 98%

REP Ronald C. Russell 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+9 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 58.7% 2024 general · margin 22.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMPingreeREPRussell

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Chellie Pingree$551,077.70

Ronald C. Russell$214,095.98

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Chellie Pingree$646,706.82

Ronald C. Russell$219,953.49

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Chellie Pingree$320,049.11

Ronald C. Russell$8,363.57

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Chellie PingreeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Ronald C. RussellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Chellie PingreeD+9seat-level

Ronald C. RussellD+9seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+9

Lean (D minus R, points): +8.504

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Chellie Pingree	DEM	249,798	58.70%
Ronald C. Russell	REP	154,849	36.39%
Ethan Weld Alcorn	OTH	20,883	4.91%

Total votes 425,530 · winning margin 22.31% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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