ME-02 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Maine District 2 · Open seat

DEMAdvanced to the general

Matthew Dunlap

38%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced to the general

Paul LePage

62%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

62% Paul LePage · RepublicanChance to win after the final ranked-choice round, between the two named candidates

REP Paul LePage 62%

DEM Matthew Dunlap 38%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+6 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 50.4% 2024 general · margin 0.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMDunlapREPLepage

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Matthew Dunlap$2,964,963.53

Paul LePage$3,299,130.03

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Matthew Dunlap$2,520,995.86

Paul LePage$2,450,906.39

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Matthew Dunlap$443,967.67

Paul LePage$848,223.64

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Matthew DunlapNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Paul LePageNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Matthew DunlapR+6seat-level

Paul LePageR+6seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+6

Lean (D minus R, points): -5.627

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Jared F. Golden	DEM	197,151	50.35%
Austin Theriault	REP	194,445	49.65%

Total votes 391,596 · winning margin 0.69% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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