ME Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced to the general

Troy Dale Jackson challenger (former Maine Senate president)

83%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPRepublican nominee

Susan Collins incumbent unopposed in the June 9, 2026 primary

17%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

RatingToss Up · Cook Political Report · as of 2025-10-14

IncumbentSusan Collins

Why it is watchedCollins is the only Republican senator up in a state Harris carried, and Cook has rated the race Toss Up since Oct 14, 2025 (Cook race page). The Democratic side was upended: Graham Platner won the June 9, 2026 primary but withdrew on July 10 amid sexual-assault allegations and other controversies, and former state Senate president Troy Jackson was chosen as replacement nominee at a July 25 convention (Wikipedia, citing Maine Secretary of State). Cook's race summary calls a Jackson win 'a real upset', yet August polling has Jackson narrowly ahead: Fox News Aug 6-10 Jackson 48-46, UNH July 15-20 49-46, Hart Research July 27-Aug 1 49-45 (Newsweek, Aug 12, 2026). Maine's general election uses ranked-choice voting.

Notes

Cook moved Maine from Lean R to Toss Up on Oct 14, 2025 (race page 'last updated'); Cook's initial Feb 2025 rating was Lean R (Yahoo/The Hill, Feb 12, 2025).
Troy Jackson's FEC summary money reads 'Not available' because his committee (registered after the July 25, 2026 nomination) has filed no periodic report yet: re-checked against the FEC API on Sept 13, 2026, zero reports and zero candidate totals for the 2026 cycle. Nothing is estimated in its place.

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

83% Troy Dale Jackson · DemocratChance to win after the final ranked-choice round, between the two named candidates

DEM Troy Dale Jackson 83%

REP Susan Collins 17%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Jackson 49.0% · Collins 45.0% CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat REP 51.0% 2020 general · margin 8.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 6 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMJacksonREPCollins

Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage

Troy Dale JacksonTROY JACKSON FOR MAINEC00955609

Susan CollinsCOLLINS FOR SENATORC00314575

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Troy Dale Jackson$26,872,873.96

Susan Collins$22,465,217.83

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Troy Dale Jackson$25,276,003.40

Susan Collins$22,351,644.19

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Troy Dale Jackson$1,596,870.56

Susan Collins$2,689,882.54

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Troy Dale Jackson49.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26

Susan Collins45.0%CNN/SSRS · 2026-10-26

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Troy Dale JacksonD+4seat-level

Susan CollinsD+4seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

10 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-26

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Jackson	Collins	Others
CNN/SSRS	2026-10-20 to 2026-10-26	LV · n=783	49.0%	45.0%	none
Marist University	2026-10-22 to 2026-10-25	LV · n=1,449	49.0%	47.0%	none
Echelon InsightsNetChoice	2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23	LV · n=413	51.0%	44.0%	none
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News	2026-10-16 to 2026-10-20	LV · n=1,514	49.0%	49.0%	none
InsiderAdvantage	2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14	LV · n=1,200	49.0%	47.0%	none
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government	2026-09-30 to 2026-10-05	LV · n=800	50.0%	45.0%	none
Marist University	2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04	RV · n=1,505	51.0%	47.0%	none
co/efficient	2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30	LV · n=1,240	46.0%	48.0%	none
The New York Times/Siena UniversityPortland Press Herald	2026-09-15 to 2026-09-22	LV · n=619	46.0%	49.0%	none
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchAARP	2026-09-20 to 2026-09-22	LV · n=982	50.0%	47.0%	none

7 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

D+4

Lean (D minus R, points): +3.664
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Susan Collins	REP	417,645	51.00%
Sara I. Gideon	DEM	347,223	42.40%
Lisa Savage	OTH	40,579	4.95%
Max Patrick Linn	OTH	13,508	1.65%

Total votes 818,955 · winning margin 8.60% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Maine · U.S. Senate · 2026