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Race · U.S. House · Michigan · 2026

Michigan District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Michigan District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Michigan District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Callie Barr
11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
LaVeta Davenport
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Zebulon Featherly
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Arnett Satterla
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Doc Kovaly
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Liz Hakola
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jack Bergman incumbent
89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJack Bergman

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
89% Jack Bergman · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Jack Bergman 89%
DEM Callie Barr 11%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 59.1% 2024 general · margin 21.2%

Side by side

7 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBarrGRNDavenportINDFeatherlyLIBSatterlaOTHKovalyOTHHakolaREPBergman
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Callie Barr$1,724,591.90
LaVeta DavenportNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zebulon FeatherlyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arnett SatterlaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doc KovalyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Liz HakolaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jack Bergman$2,417,376.48
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Callie Barr$1,348,497.42
LaVeta DavenportNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zebulon FeatherlyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arnett SatterlaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doc KovalyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Liz HakolaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jack Bergman$2,265,237.72
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Callie Barr$383,735.18
LaVeta DavenportNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zebulon FeatherlyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Arnett SatterlaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Doc KovalyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Liz HakolaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jack Bergman$263,088.55
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Callie BarrNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
LaVeta DavenportNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Zebulon FeatherlyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Arnett SatterlaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Doc KovalyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Liz HakolaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jack BergmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Callie BarrR+13seat-level
LaVeta DavenportR+13seat-level
Zebulon FeatherlyR+13seat-level
Arnett SatterlaR+13seat-level
Doc KovalyR+13seat-level
Liz HakolaR+13seat-level
Jack BergmanR+13seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+13
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -12.697

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jack BergmanREP282,26459.15%
    Callie BarrDEM180,93737.92%
    Liz HakolaOTH8,4971.78%
    Andrew GaleLIB5,4861.15%

    Total votes 477,184 · winning margin 21.23% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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