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Race · U.S. House · Michigan · 2026

Michigan District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Michigan District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Michigan District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Ben Ambrose
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Charlotte Magoon
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Richard Sills
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
John Moolenaar incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn Moolenaar

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% John Moolenaar · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP John Moolenaar 97%
DEM Ben Ambrose 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+16 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 65.1% 2024 general · margin 33.5%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMAmbroseGRNMagoonOTHSillsREPMoolenaar
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ben Ambrose$186,503.84
Charlotte MagoonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Richard SillsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Moolenaar$2,068,418.39
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ben Ambrose$153,160.92
Charlotte MagoonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Richard SillsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Moolenaar$2,137,063.15
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ben Ambrose$32,956.26
Charlotte MagoonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Richard SillsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Moolenaar$1,213,299.49
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ben AmbroseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Charlotte MagoonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Richard SillsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John MoolenaarNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ben AmbroseR+16seat-level
Charlotte MagoonR+16seat-level
Richard SillsR+16seat-level
John MoolenaarR+16seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+16
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -16.486

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    John MoolenaarREP279,16765.14%
    Michael LynchDEM135,82431.69%
    Ben DejongLIB7,0371.64%
    Scott AdamsOTH6,5221.52%

    Total votes 428,550 · winning margin 33.45% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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