Race header
DEMNominee
Sean McCann
41%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Shafina Che Barnett
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Bill Huizenga
incumbent
59%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBill Huizenga
Hume Outlook
59% Bill Huizenga · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Bill Huizenga
59%
DEM
Sean McCann
41%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Huizenga 44.0% · Mccann 42.0%
Public Policy Polling · 2025-11-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+5
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 55.1%
2024 general · margin 11.7%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMccannGRNBarnettREPHuizenga
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Sean McCann$4,699,153.23
Shafina Che BarnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Huizenga$5,562,774.67
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Sean McCann$3,664,710.99
Shafina Che BarnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Huizenga$5,277,593.11
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Sean McCann$1,034,442.24
Shafina Che BarnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Huizenga$394,221.52
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Sean McCann42.0%Public Policy Polling · 2025-11-21
Shafina Che BarnettNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2025-11-21)
Bill Huizenga44.0%Public Policy Polling · 2025-11-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Sean McCannR+5seat-level
Shafina Che BarnettR+5seat-level
Bill HuizengaR+5seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Mccann | Barnett | Huizenga | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-20 to 2025-11-21 | RV · n=559 | 42.0% | not named | 44.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+5
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -4.912
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Huizenga | REP | 234,489 | 55.07% |
| Jessica Swartz | DEM | 184,641 | 43.36% |
| Curtis Clark | OTH | 6,687 | 1.57% |
Total votes 425,817 · winning margin 11.71% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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