Race header
DEMNominee
William Lawrence
70%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Shane Dedrick
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tom Barrett
incumbent
30%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTom Barrett
Hume Outlook
70% William Lawrence · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
William Lawrence
70%
REP
Tom Barrett
30%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Lawrence 53.0% · Barrett 45.0%
Emerson College / Poll Vault · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+2
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 50.3%
2024 general · margin 3.7%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLawrenceGRNDedrickREPBarrett
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
William Lawrence$4,160,041.27
Shane DedrickNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Barrett$8,238,468.08
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
William Lawrence$3,531,075.28
Shane DedrickNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Barrett$7,221,105.45
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
William Lawrence$628,965.99
Shane DedrickNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Barrett$1,039,762.51
Latest pollpercent, as stored
William Lawrence53.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Shane DedrickNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-14)
Tom Barrett45.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
William LawrenceR+2seat-level
Shane DedrickR+2seat-level
Tom BarrettR+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Lawrence | Dedrick | Barrett | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=314 | 53.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Global Strategy GroupHouse Majority PAC | 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-13 | LV · n=500 | 49.0% | not named | 47.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -2.266
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Barrett | REP | 226,722 | 50.28% |
| Curtis Hertel | DEM | 209,959 | 46.56% |
| L. Rachel Dailey | LIB | 14,231 | 3.16% |
Total votes 450,912 · winning margin 3.72% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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