Race header
DEMNominee
Kristen McDonald Rivet
incumbent
91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Jim Casha
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
C. Mia Pettus
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Kathy Goodwin
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Thomas J. Smith
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentKristen McDonald Rivet
Hume Outlook
91% Kristen McDonald Rivet · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Kristen McDonald Rivet
91%
REP
Thomas J. Smith
9%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+1
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
DEM 51.2%
2024 general · margin 6.6%
Side by side
5 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMRivetGRNCashaLIBPettusOTHGoodwinREPSmith
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kristen McDonald Rivet$6,922,878.91
Jim CashaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
C. Mia PettusNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kathy GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Thomas J. Smith$561,096.81
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kristen McDonald Rivet$4,265,040.33
Jim CashaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
C. Mia PettusNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kathy GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Thomas J. Smith$476,030.85
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kristen McDonald Rivet$2,674,869.10
Jim CashaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
C. Mia PettusNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kathy GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Thomas J. Smith$85,065.96
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kristen McDonald RivetNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jim CashaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
C. Mia PettusNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kathy GoodwinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Thomas J. SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kristen McDonald RivetR+1seat-level
Jim CashaR+1seat-level
C. Mia PettusR+1seat-level
Kathy GoodwinR+1seat-level
Thomas J. SmithR+1seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+1
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -1.014
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | DEM | 217,490 | 51.25% |
| Paul Junge | REP | 189,317 | 44.61% |
| Kathy Goodwin | OTH | 8,492 | 2.00% |
| Steve Barcelo | LIB | 4,768 | 1.12% |
| James Allen Little | OTH | 2,681 | 0.63% |
| Jim Casha | GRN | 1,602 | 0.38% |
Total votes 424,350 · winning margin 6.64% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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