Race header
DEMNominee
Ray Pooley
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Destiny Clayton
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Kevin Vayko
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Jim Walkowicz
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
John Vlahos
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Lisa McClain
incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentLisa McClain
Hume Outlook
98% Lisa McClain · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Lisa McClain
98%
DEM
Ray Pooley
2%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+18
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 66.8%
2024 general · margin 37.3%
Side by side
6 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPooleyGRNClaytonLIBVaykoOTHWalkowiczOTHVlahosREPMcclain
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ray Pooley$26,386.57
Destiny ClaytonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin VaykoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim WalkowiczNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John VlahosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa McClain$6,046,475.44
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ray Pooley$12,311.48
Destiny ClaytonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin VaykoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim WalkowiczNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John VlahosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa McClain$4,900,622.33
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ray Pooley$14,075.09
Destiny ClaytonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin VaykoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jim WalkowiczNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John VlahosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa McClain$1,752,710.48
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ray PooleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Destiny ClaytonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kevin VaykoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jim WalkowiczNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John VlahosNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Lisa McClainNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ray PooleyR+18seat-level
Destiny ClaytonR+18seat-level
Kevin VaykoR+18seat-level
Jim WalkowiczR+18seat-level
John VlahosR+18seat-level
Lisa McClainR+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+18
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -17.669
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa McClain | REP | 312,593 | 66.76% |
| Clinton ST. Mosley | DEM | 138,138 | 29.50% |
| Jim Walkowicz | OTH | 12,169 | 2.60% |
| Kevin Vayko | LIB | 5,338 | 1.14% |
Total votes 468,238 · winning margin 37.26% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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