Race header
DEMNominee
Christina Bertrand Hines
58%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Kwabena Nkromo
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Mike Saliba
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Andrea L. Kirby
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael Bouchard
42%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
58% Christina Bertrand Hines · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Christina Bertrand Hines
58%
REP
Michael Bouchard
42%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Hines 45.0% · Bouchard 45.0%
Global Strategy Group / House Majority PAC · 2026-08-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+3
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 51.1%
2024 general · margin 6.1%
Side by side
5 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMHinesGRNNkromoLIBSalibaOTHKirbyREPBouchard
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Christina Bertrand Hines$4,159,692.85
Kwabena NkromoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike SalibaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Andrea L. KirbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Bouchard$2,884,259.39
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Christina Bertrand Hines$3,152,065.09
Kwabena NkromoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike SalibaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Andrea L. KirbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Bouchard$1,310,789.75
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Christina Bertrand Hines$1,007,627.76
Kwabena NkromoNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike SalibaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Andrea L. KirbyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Bouchard$1,573,469.64
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Christina Bertrand Hines45.0%Global Strategy Group · 2026-08-13
Kwabena NkromoNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-13)
Mike SalibaNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-13)
Andrea L. KirbyNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-13)
Michael Bouchard45.0%Global Strategy Group · 2026-08-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Christina Bertrand HinesR+3seat-level
Kwabena NkromoR+3seat-level
Mike SalibaR+3seat-level
Andrea L. KirbyR+3seat-level
Michael BouchardR+3seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Hines | Nkromo | Saliba | Kirby | Bouchard | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupHouse Majority PAC | 2026-08-10 to 2026-08-13 | LV · n=600 | 45.0% | not named | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+3
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -3.159
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| John James | REP | 217,437 | 51.13% |
| Carl J. Marlinga | DEM | 191,363 | 44.99% |
| Andrea L. Kirby | OTH | 11,162 | 2.62% |
| Mike Saliba | LIB | 5,339 | 1.26% |
Total votes 425,301 · winning margin 6.13% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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