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DEMDemocratic nominee
Abdul El-Sayedlimited profile
open-seat nominee
won Aug 4, 2026 primary, 48.5%
76%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Douglas P. Marsh
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Lydia Christensen
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Tim Long
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Walter P. Kristy
—Not published for this candidate
REPRepublican nominee
Mike Rogers
open-seat nominee (former U.S. Representative; 2024 Senate nominee)
unopposed on the Aug 4, 2026 primary ballot
24%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGary Peters (D) - retiring
Why it is watchedThe only open Democratic-held seat in a state Trump won in 2024 (by 1.4 points), rated Toss Up by Cook since its first 2026 ratings on Feb 11, 2025 (Cook race page; Wikipedia). Progressive Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, won the Aug 4, 2026 Democratic primary with 48.5% over Rep. Haley Stevens; former Rep. Mike Rogers, the 2024 nominee, was the only Republican to qualify (Wikipedia). Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate race since 1994. Post-primary polling is inside the margin of error: TIPP Aug 6-10 El-Sayed 45-42, Fox News Rogers 51-47, Susquehanna El-Sayed 46-39, EPIC-MRA Rogers 46-43 (Newsweek, Aug 19, 2026).
Notes
- Rating re-checked Sept 13, 2026: Cook's race page refused automated fetch, so the Feb 11, 2025 'last updated' stands as filed; a secondary read (Wikipedia ratings table) still shows Cook Toss Up as of Aug 20, 2026 and Inside Elections Toss-up as of Sept 3, 2026.
Hume Outlook
76% Abdul El-Sayed · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Abdul El-Sayed
76%
REP
Mike Rogers
24%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
El-Sayed 51.0% · Rogers 44.0% · Christensen 1.0% · Long 0.0% · Marsh 0.0% · Kristy 1.0%
Mitchell Research & Communications / WWJ-TV; WKBD-TV · 2026-10-27 · 1 more matchup(s) with the same field end in the table below
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
EVEN
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 49.9%
2020 general · margin 1.7%
Side by side
6 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMEl-SayedGRNMarshLIBChristensenOTHLongOTHKristyREPRogers
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Abdul El-SayedABDUL FOR U.S. SENATEC00902668
Douglas P. MarshNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Lydia ChristensenNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Tim LongNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Walter P. KristyNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Mike RogersROGERS FOR SENATEC00849810
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Abdul El-Sayed$53,830,872.19through 2026-10-14
Douglas P. MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lydia Christensen$7,159.28through 2026-10-14
Tim LongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Walter P. KristyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Rogers$23,016,438.64through 2026-10-22
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Abdul El-Sayed$51,096,843.30through 2026-10-14
Douglas P. MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lydia Christensen$5,035.32through 2026-10-14
Tim LongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Walter P. KristyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Rogers$19,369,636.60through 2026-10-22
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Abdul El-Sayed$2,734,028.89through 2026-10-14
Douglas P. MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lydia Christensen$2,600.65through 2026-10-14
Tim LongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Walter P. KristyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Rogers$3,902,505.76through 2026-10-22
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Abdul El-Sayed51.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Douglas P. Marsh0.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Lydia Christensen1.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Tim Long0.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Walter P. Kristy1.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Mike Rogers44.0%Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-10-27
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Abdul El-SayedEVENseat-level
Douglas P. MarshEVENseat-level
Lydia ChristensenEVENseat-level
Tim LongEVENseat-level
Walter P. KristyEVENseat-level
Mike RogersEVENseat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | El-Sayed | Marsh | Christensen | Long | Kristy | Rogers | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & CommunicationsWWJ-TV; WKBD-TV | 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-27 | LV · n=636 | 51.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 44.0% | none |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27 | LV · n=768 | 49.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 42.0% | none |
| Michigan State University Department of Political Science/Verasight | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=1,383 | 50.5% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 43.1% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22 | LV · n=1,200 | 47.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Glengariff Group, Inc.The Detroit News; WDIV-TV | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-22 | LV · n=600 | 51.4% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 45.1% | none |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=836 | 48.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 45.5% | none |
| Marist University | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV | 50.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 48.0% | none |
| The Tyson GroupAlliance for a Better Future | 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08 | LV · n=600 | 44.0% | not named | not named | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Z to A ResearchRust Belt Rising | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01 | LV · n=483 | 49.0% | not named | 3.0% | not named | not named | 42.0% | none |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-01 | LV · n=682 | 46.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 41.0% | none |
20 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
EVEN
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -0.266
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Peters | DEM | 2,734,568 | 49.90% |
| John James | REP | 2,642,233 | 48.22% |
| Valerie L. Willis | OTH | 50,597 | 0.92% |
| Marcia Squier | GRN | 39,217 | 0.72% |
| Doug Dern | OTH | 13,093 | 0.24% |
Total votes 5,479,708 · winning margin 1.69% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026 or Oct 22, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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