MN-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, Minnesota District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Jake Johnson

29%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Brad Finstad incumbent

71%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBrad Finstad

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

71% Brad Finstad · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Brad Finstad 71%

DEM Jake Johnson 29%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Finstad 43.0% · Johnson 43.0% Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-14

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+8 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 58.5% 2024 general · margin 17.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMJohnsonREPFinstad

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jake Johnson$3,507,568.36

Brad Finstad$2,765,869.64

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jake Johnson$2,946,474.85

Brad Finstad$2,223,656.51

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jake Johnson$561,093.51

Brad Finstad$603,622.36

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jake Johnson43.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-14

Brad Finstad43.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-14

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jake JohnsonR+8seat-level

Brad FinstadR+8seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

3 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-14

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Johnson	Finstad	Others
Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC	2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14	LV · n=588	43.0%	43.0%	none
SurveyUSAKAAL-TV	2026-10-04 to 2026-10-09	LV · n=565	46.0%	44.0%	none
GBAO StrategiesHouse Majority PAC	2026-09-18 to 2026-09-21	LV · n=500	47.0%	46.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+8

Lean (D minus R, points): -7.577

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Brad Finstad	REP	220,929	58.55%
Rachel Bohman	DEM	156,375	41.45%

Total votes 377,304 · winning margin 17.11% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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