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Race · U.S. House · Minnesota · 2026

Minnesota District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Minnesota District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Kelly Morrison incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Tyler Bass
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentKelly Morrison

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Kelly Morrison · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Kelly Morrison 97%
REP Tyler Bass 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+7 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 58.5% 2024 general · margin 17.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMorrisonREPBass
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kelly Morrison$1,867,912.24
Tyler BassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kelly Morrison$1,385,435.88
Tyler BassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kelly Morrison$507,864.91
Tyler BassNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kelly MorrisonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tyler BassNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kelly MorrisonD+7seat-level
Tyler BassD+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+7
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +7.229

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Kelly MorrisonDEM240,20958.50%
    Tad JudeREP170,42741.50%

    Total votes 410,636 · winning margin 16.99% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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