MN-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Betty McCollum incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Paul Wikstrom

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBetty McCollum

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Betty McCollum · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Betty McCollum 99%

REP Paul Wikstrom 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+17 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 67.4% 2024 general · margin 34.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMccollumREPWikstrom

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Betty McCollum$1,539,014.07

Paul Wikstrom$65,015.98

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Betty McCollum$1,567,668.60

Paul Wikstrom$36,129.62

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Betty McCollum$526,264.24

Paul Wikstrom$18,547.61

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Betty McCollumNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Paul WikstromNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Betty McCollumD+17seat-level

Paul WikstromD+17seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+17

Lean (D minus R, points): +16.708

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Betty McCollum	DEM	242,802	67.37%
May Lor Xiong	REP	117,618	32.63%

Total votes 360,420 · winning margin 34.73% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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