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Race · U.S. House · Minnesota · 2026

Minnesota District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Minnesota District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Ilhan Omar incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
DeVelle L. Jackson
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
John Nagel
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentIlhan Omar

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Ilhan Omar · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Ilhan Omar 99%
REP John Nagel 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+30 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 75.2% 2024 general · margin 50.4%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMOmarINDJacksonREPNagel
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ilhan Omar$8,247,981.67
DeVelle L. JacksonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Nagel$1,126,114.57
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ilhan Omar$5,568,518.43
DeVelle L. JacksonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Nagel$1,023,562.64
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ilhan Omar$3,003,683.87
DeVelle L. JacksonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
John Nagel$102,551.93
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ilhan OmarNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
DeVelle L. JacksonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John NagelNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ilhan OmarD+30seat-level
DeVelle L. JacksonD+30seat-level
John NagelD+30seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+30
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +29.643

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Ilhan OmarDEM261,06675.17%
    Dalia Al-AqidiREP86,21324.83%

    Total votes 347,279 · winning margin 50.35% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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