MN-06 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 6 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Doug Chapin

6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Tom Emmer incumbent

94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentTom Emmer

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

94% Tom Emmer · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Tom Emmer 94%

DEM Doug Chapin 6%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+12 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 62.5% 2024 general · margin 25.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMChapinREPEmmer

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Doug Chapin$765,076.15

Tom Emmer$10,861,547.06

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Doug Chapin$646,600.39

Tom Emmer$9,578,754.06

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Doug Chapin$118,475.76

Tom Emmer$2,971,244.83

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Doug ChapinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Tom EmmerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Doug ChapinR+12seat-level

Tom EmmerR+12seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+12

Lean (D minus R, points): -12.228

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Tom Emmer	REP	260,095	62.53%
Jeanne Hendricks	DEM	155,836	37.47%

Total votes 415,931 · winning margin 25.07% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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