MN-07 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 7 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Erik Osberg

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Michelle Fischbach incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMichelle Fischbach

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Michelle Fischbach · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Michelle Fischbach 98%

DEM Erik Osberg 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+19 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 70.5% 2024 general · margin 41.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMOsbergREPFischbach

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Erik Osberg$577,219.01

Michelle Fischbach$1,673,105.11

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Erik Osberg$450,470.81

Michelle Fischbach$1,217,823.74

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Erik Osberg$126,748.20

Michelle Fischbach$866,361.88

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Erik OsbergNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Michelle FischbachNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Erik OsbergR+19seat-level

Michelle FischbachR+19seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+19

Lean (D minus R, points): -19.304

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Michelle Fischbach	REP	275,098	70.52%
A J “John” Peters	DEM	114,979	29.48%

Total votes 390,077 · winning margin 41.05% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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