MN-08 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Trina Swanson

21%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Pete Stauber incumbent

79%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentPete Stauber

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

79% Pete Stauber · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Pete Stauber 79%

DEM Trina Swanson 21%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+8 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 58.0% 2024 general · margin 16.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSwansonREPStauber

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Trina Swanson$727,329.66

Pete Stauber$2,566,760.29

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Trina Swanson$550,513.76

Pete Stauber$2,008,966.94

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Trina Swanson$176,815.90

Pete Stauber$1,086,286.90

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Trina SwansonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Pete StauberNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Trina SwansonR+8seat-level

Pete StauberR+8seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+8

Lean (D minus R, points): -8.061

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Pete Stauber	REP	244,498	58.04%
Jen Schultz	DEM	176,724	41.96%

Total votes 421,222 · winning margin 16.09% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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