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DEMNominee
Peggy Flanagan
92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Marisa Simonetti
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Rebecca Whiting
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michele Tafoya
8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
92% Peggy Flanagan · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Peggy Flanagan
92%
REP
Michele Tafoya
8%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Flanagan 45.0% · Tafoya 42.0% · Simonetti 2.0% · Whiting 2.0%
SurveyUSA / KSTP-TV (St. Paul); KAAL-TV (Austin); WDIO-DT (Duluth) · 2026-10-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+2
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 48.8%
2020 general · margin 5.2%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMFlanaganINDSimonettiLIBWhitingREPTafoya
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Peggy Flanagan$11,563,963.37
Marisa SimonettiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Whiting$3,756.00
Michele Tafoya$12,501,785.59
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Peggy Flanagan$10,570,749.30
Marisa SimonettiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Whiting$1,828.03
Michele Tafoya$9,682,729.80
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Peggy Flanagan$993,214.07
Marisa SimonettiNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Whiting$1,927.97
Michele Tafoya$2,819,386.89
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Peggy Flanagan45.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-12
Marisa Simonetti2.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-12
Rebecca Whiting2.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-12
Michele Tafoya42.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Peggy FlanaganD+2seat-level
Marisa SimonettiD+2seat-level
Rebecca WhitingD+2seat-level
Michele TafoyaD+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
7 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Flanagan | Simonetti | Whiting | Tafoya | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAKSTP-TV (St. Paul); KAAL-TV (Austin); WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12 | LV · n=718 | 45.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 42.0% | none |
| GQRSenate Majority PAC | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04 | LV · n=800 | 50.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 42.0% | none |
| Big Data PollPublic Polling Project | 2026-09-29 to 2026-09-30 | LV · n=622 | 46.0% | not named | 5.0% | 44.0% | none |
| SurveyUSAKSTP-TV (St. Paul); KAAL-TV (Austin); WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-14 | LV · n=654 | 42.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 42.0% | none |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10 | LV · n=720 | 48.2% | not named | not named | 44.4% | none |
| SurveyUSAKSTP-TV (St. Paul); KAAL-TV (Austin); WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-17 | LV · n=661 | 46.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 41.0% | none |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-06 to 2026-02-08 | LV · n=1,000 | 47.1% | not named | not named | 40.6% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +2.405
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Smith | DEM | 1,566,522 | 48.77% |
| Jason Lewis | REP | 1,398,145 | 43.53% |
| Kevin O'Connor | OTH | 190,154 | 5.92% |
| Oliver Steinberg | OTH | 57,174 | 1.78% |
Total votes 3,211,995 · winning margin 5.24% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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