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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Wesley Bell incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Tom Schmitz
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Paul Berry III
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentWesley Bell

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Wesley Bell · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Wesley Bell >99%
REP Paul Berry III <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+27 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 75.9% 2024 general · margin 57.6%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBellLIBSchmitzREPBerry
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Wesley Bell$4,024,636.06
Tom SchmitzNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Paul Berry IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Wesley Bell$4,051,555.89
Tom SchmitzNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Paul Berry IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Wesley Bell$407,001.06
Tom SchmitzNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Paul Berry IIINot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Wesley BellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tom SchmitzNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Paul Berry IIINot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Wesley BellD+27seat-level
Tom SchmitzD+27seat-level
Paul Berry IIID+27seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+27
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +27.342

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Wesley BellDEM233,31275.93%
    Andrew JonesREP56,45318.37%
    Rochelle A. RigginsLIB10,0703.28%
    Don FitzGRN5,1511.68%
    Blake AshbyOTH2,2790.74%

    Total votes 307,265 · winning margin 57.56% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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