Race header
DEMNominee
Fred Wellman
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Brandon Coulter Daugherty
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Ann Wagner
incumbent
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAnn Wagner
Hume Outlook
68% Ann Wagner · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ann Wagner
68%
DEM
Fred Wellman
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Wagner 45.0% · Wellman 46.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+7
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 54.5%
2024 general · margin 12.0%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMWellmanLIBDaughertyREPWagner
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Fred Wellman$2,178,964.91
Brandon Coulter DaughertyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ann Wagner$4,189,876.26
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Fred Wellman$1,938,247.02
Brandon Coulter DaughertyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ann Wagner$5,669,709.15
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Fred Wellman$240,717.89
Brandon Coulter DaughertyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ann Wagner$1,631,396.51
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Fred Wellman46.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Brandon Coulter DaughertyNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Ann Wagner45.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Fred WellmanR+7seat-level
Brandon Coulter DaughertyR+7seat-level
Ann WagnerR+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Wellman | Daugherty | Wagner | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=631 | 46.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=401 | 51.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Remington Research Group | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15 | LV · n=565 | 42.0% | not named | 43.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+7
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -7.397
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Wagner | REP | 233,444 | 54.49% |
| Ray Hartmann | DEM | 182,056 | 42.50% |
| Brandon Daugherty | LIB | 8,951 | 2.09% |
| Shelby Davis | GRN | 3,941 | 0.92% |
Total votes 428,392 · winning margin 12.00% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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