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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Bethany E Mann
4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Jim Higgins
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Bob Onder incumbent
96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBob Onder

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
96% Bob Onder · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Bob Onder 96%
DEM Bethany E Mann 4%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+16 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 61.3% 2024 general · margin 26.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMannLIBHigginsREPOnder
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Bethany E Mann$86,553.55
Jim HigginsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bob Onder$1,146,488.94
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Bethany E Mann$85,269.15
Jim HigginsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bob Onder$771,105.16
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Bethany E Mann$5,711.74
Jim HigginsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bob Onder$525,827.92
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Bethany E MannNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jim HigginsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Bob OnderNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Bethany E MannR+16seat-level
Jim HigginsR+16seat-level
Bob OnderR+16seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+16
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -16.170

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Bob OnderREP240,62061.31%
    Bethany E. MannDEM138,53235.30%
    Jordan RowdenLIB9,2982.37%
    William HastingsGRN4,0131.02%

    Total votes 392,463 · winning margin 26.01% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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