Influence no longer invisible Races · MO-04 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jordan Herrera
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Thomas Holbrook
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mark Alford incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMark Alford

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Mark Alford · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Mark Alford 98%
DEM Jordan Herrera 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+23 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 71.1% 2024 general · margin 44.7%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-07-15, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHerreraLIBHolbrookREPAlford
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jordan Herrera$41,656.63through 2026-07-15
Thomas HolbrookNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mark Alford$1,599,365.96through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jordan Herrera$22,673.73through 2026-07-15
Thomas HolbrookNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mark Alford$1,066,227.38through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jordan Herrera$19,365.61through 2026-07-15
Thomas HolbrookNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mark Alford$757,046.88through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jordan HerreraNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Thomas HolbrookNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mark AlfordNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jordan HerreraR+23seat-level
Thomas HolbrookR+23seat-level
Mark AlfordR+23seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+23
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -22.698

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mark AlfordREP259,88671.07%
    Jeanette CassDEM96,56826.41%
    Thomas HolbrookLIB9,2402.53%

    Total votes 365,694 · winning margin 44.66% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Jul 15, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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