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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Emanuel Cleaver, II incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Randall Randy Langkraehr
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Rick Brattin
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEmanuel Cleaver, II

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Emanuel Cleaver, II · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Emanuel Cleaver, II 98%
REP Rick Brattin 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+11 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 60.2% 2024 general · margin 23.8%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMCleaverLIBLangkraehrREPBrattin
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Emanuel Cleaver, II$1,766,864.40
Randall Randy LangkraehrNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rick BrattinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Emanuel Cleaver, II$1,773,542.92
Randall Randy LangkraehrNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rick BrattinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Emanuel Cleaver, II$882,948.30
Randall Randy LangkraehrNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rick BrattinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Emanuel Cleaver, IINot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Randall Randy LangkraehrNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Rick BrattinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Emanuel Cleaver, IID+11seat-level
Randall Randy LangkraehrD+11seat-level
Rick BrattinD+11seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+11
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +10.679

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Emanuel Cleaver, IIDEM199,90060.22%
    Sean E. SmithREP120,95736.44%
    William Truman “Bill” WayneLIB6,6582.01%
    Michael DayGRN4,4141.33%

    Total votes 331,929 · winning margin 23.78% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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