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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 6 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 6

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 6 · Open seat
DEMNominee
Josh Smead
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Andy Maidment
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Chris Stigall
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Chris Stigall · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Chris Stigall 98%
DEM Josh Smead 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+21 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 70.7% 2024 general · margin 43.8%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMSmeadLIBMaidmentREPStigall
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Josh Smead$145,752.57
Andy MaidmentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Stigall$1,045,323.71
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Josh Smead$110,551.76
Andy MaidmentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Stigall$834,318.78
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Josh Smead$35,200.81
Andy MaidmentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Stigall$211,004.93
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Josh SmeadNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Andy MaidmentNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Chris StigallNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Josh SmeadR+21seat-level
Andy MaidmentR+21seat-level
Chris StigallR+21seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+21
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -21.191

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Sam GravesREP265,21070.69%
    Pam MayDEM100,99926.92%
    Andy MaidmentLIB5,9191.58%
    Mike DielGRN3,0580.82%

    Total votes 375,186 · winning margin 43.77% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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