Influence no longer invisible Races · MO-07 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 7 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 7

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 7 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Missi Hesketh
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Kevin Craig
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Eric Burlison incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEric Burlison

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Eric Burlison · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Eric Burlison 99%
DEM Missi Hesketh 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+24 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 71.6% 2024 general · margin 45.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-07-15, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHeskethLIBCraigREPBurlison
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Missi Hesketh$50,539.85through 2026-07-15
Kevin CraigNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric Burlison$1,697,441.77through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Missi Hesketh$22,134.40through 2026-07-15
Kevin CraigNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric Burlison$1,336,464.86through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Missi Hesketh$33,543.24through 2026-07-15
Kevin CraigNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric Burlison$962,364.48through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Missi HeskethNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kevin CraigNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Eric BurlisonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Missi HeskethR+24seat-level
Kevin CraigR+24seat-level
Eric BurlisonR+24seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+24
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -23.914

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Eric BurlisonREP263,23171.56%
    Missi HeskethDEM96,65526.27%
    Kevin CraigLIB7,9822.17%

    Total votes 367,868 · winning margin 45.28% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Jul 15, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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