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Race · U.S. House · Missouri · 2026

Missouri District 8 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Missouri District 8

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Race header

U.S. House, Missouri District 8 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Chris Reichard
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Rebecca Sharpe Lombard
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jason Smith incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJason Smith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Jason Smith · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Jason Smith 99%
DEM Chris Reichard 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+28 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 76.2% 2024 general · margin 54.4%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMReichardLIBLombardREPSmith
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Chris ReichardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Sharpe LombardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jason Smith$6,299,171.08
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Chris ReichardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Sharpe LombardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jason Smith$3,901,238.09
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Chris ReichardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Rebecca Sharpe LombardNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jason Smith$5,415,076.95
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Chris ReichardNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Rebecca Sharpe LombardNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jason SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Chris ReichardR+28seat-level
Rebecca Sharpe LombardR+28seat-level
Jason SmithR+28seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+28
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -28.071

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jason SmithREP271,24976.18%
    Randi McCallianDEM77,64921.81%
    Jake DawsonLIB7,1662.01%

    Total votes 356,064 · winning margin 54.37% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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