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Race · U.S. House · Mississippi · 2026

Mississippi District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Mississippi District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Mississippi District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Cliff Johnson
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Johnny Baucom
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Trent Kelly incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTrent Kelly

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Trent Kelly · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Trent Kelly 98%
DEM Cliff Johnson 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+18 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 69.8% 2024 general · margin 39.6%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMJohnsonLIBBaucomREPKelly
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Cliff Johnson$848,648.09
Johnny BaucomNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Trent Kelly$1,314,373.36
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Cliff Johnson$759,400.54
Johnny BaucomNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Trent Kelly$1,089,059.25
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Cliff Johnson$89,247.55
Johnny BaucomNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Trent Kelly$834,172.64
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Cliff JohnsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Johnny BaucomNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Trent KellyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Cliff JohnsonR+18seat-level
Johnny BaucomR+18seat-level
Trent KellyR+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+18
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -18.367

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Trent KellyREP223,58969.81%
    Dianne Dodson BlackDEM96,69730.19%

    Total votes 320,286 · winning margin 39.62% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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