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Race · U.S. House · Mississippi · 2026

Mississippi District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Mississippi District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Michael A. Chiaradio
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Erik Kiehle
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael Guest incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMichael Guest

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Michael Guest · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Michael Guest 97%
DEM Michael A. Chiaradio 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+15 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMChiaradioLIBKiehleREPGuest
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Michael A. Chiaradio$224,381.10
Erik KiehleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Guest$1,089,344.17
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Michael A. Chiaradio$185,042.01
Erik KiehleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Guest$820,631.77
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Michael A. Chiaradio$39,338.89
Erik KiehleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Guest$780,057.84
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Michael A. ChiaradioNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Erik KiehleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael GuestNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Michael A. ChiaradioR+15seat-level
Erik KiehleR+15seat-level
Michael GuestR+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+15
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -14.813

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Michael GuestREP265,159100.00%

    Total votes 265,159 · winning margin Not available of total

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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