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Race · U.S. House · Mississippi · 2026

Mississippi District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Mississippi District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Mississippi District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jeffrey Hulum III
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Carl Boyanton
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mike Ezell incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Ezell

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Mike Ezell · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Mike Ezell 98%
DEM Jeffrey Hulum III 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+22 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 74.0% 2024 general · margin 47.9%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHulumINDBoyantonREPEzell
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jeffrey Hulum III$60,172.68through 2026-09-30
Carl BoyantonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Ezell$1,149,872.59through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jeffrey Hulum III$49,971.86through 2026-09-30
Carl BoyantonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Ezell$1,212,457.92through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jeffrey Hulum III$10,553.54through 2026-09-30
Carl BoyantonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Ezell$88,879.72through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jeffrey Hulum IIINot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Carl BoyantonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike EzellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jeffrey Hulum IIIR+22seat-level
Carl BoyantonR+22seat-level
Mike EzellR+22seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+22
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -21.819

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mike EzellREP215,09573.95%
    Craig Elliot RaybonDEM75,77126.05%

    Total votes 290,866 · winning margin 47.90% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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