MS Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Scott Colom

9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

INDOn the ballot

Ty Pinkins

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Cindy Hyde-Smith incumbent

91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentCindy Hyde-Smith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

91% Cindy Hyde-Smith · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Cindy Hyde-Smith 91%

DEM Scott Colom 9%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Hyde-Smith 47.0% · Colom 41.0% Data for Progress / Way to Lead PAC · 2026-08-15

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat REP 54.1% 2020 general · margin 10.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMColomINDPinkinsREPHyde-Smith

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Scott Colom$4,400,889.53through 2026-10-14

Ty Pinkins$104,310.83through 2026-09-30

Cindy Hyde-Smith$4,646,802.99through 2026-10-14

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Scott Colom$3,382,172.58through 2026-10-14

Ty Pinkins$105,063.33through 2026-09-30

Cindy Hyde-Smith$3,720,843.06through 2026-10-14

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Scott Colom$1,018,716.95through 2026-10-14

Ty Pinkins$4,862.52through 2026-09-30

Cindy Hyde-Smith$1,395,723.78through 2026-10-14

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Scott Colom41.0%Data for Progress · 2026-08-15

Ty PinkinsNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-08-15)

Cindy Hyde-Smith47.0%Data for Progress · 2026-08-15

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Scott ColomR+11seat-level

Ty PinkinsR+11seat-level

Cindy Hyde-SmithR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

2 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-08-15

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Colom	Pinkins	Hyde-Smith	Others
Data for ProgressWay to Lead PAC	2026-08-05 to 2026-08-15	LV · n=1,018	41.0%	not named	47.0%	none
Impact ResearchSPLC Action Fund	2026-04-08 to 2026-04-12	LV · n=500	44.0%	not named	47.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -10.766
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Cindy Hyde-Smith	REP	709,511	54.11%
Mike Espy	DEM	578,691	44.13%
Jimmy L. Edwards	LIB	23,152	1.77%

Total votes 1,311,354 · winning margin 9.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Mississippi · U.S. Senate · 2026