Race header
DEMNominee
Sam Forstag
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Nick Sheedy
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Aaron Flint
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
60% Aaron Flint · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Aaron Flint
60%
DEM
Sam Forstag
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Flint 45.0% · Forstag 48.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-14 · 1 more matchup(s) with the same field end in the table below
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+6
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 52.3%
2024 general · margin 7.7%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMForstagLIBSheedyREPFlint
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Sam Forstag$4,312,110.49
Nick SheedyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Aaron Flint$2,856,138.55
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Sam Forstag$3,585,984.69
Nick SheedyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Aaron Flint$2,447,985.80
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Sam Forstag$726,125.80
Nick SheedyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Aaron Flint$408,152.75
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Sam Forstag48.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-14
Nick SheedyNot available Not named in the newest listed polls (2026-10-14)
Aaron Flint45.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Sam ForstagR+6seat-level
Nick SheedyR+6seat-level
Aaron FlintR+6seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Forstag | Sheedy | Flint | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=541 | 48.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=329 | 50.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| American Pulse Research & PollingKULR-TV | 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-24 | LV · n=314 | 45.4% | 5.4% | 45.9% | none |
| Upswing Research314 Action | 2026-04-30 to 2026-05-05 | LV · n=401 | 43.0% | not named | 48.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+6
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -6.385
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan K. Zinke | REP | 168,529 | 52.29% |
| Monica Tranel | DEM | 143,783 | 44.62% |
| Dennis Hayes | LIB | 9,954 | 3.09% |
Total votes 322,266 · winning margin 7.68% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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