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Race · U.S. House · Montana · 2026

Montana District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Montana District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Montana District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Brian J. Miller
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Michael D. Eisenhauer
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Patrick McCracken
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Troy Downing incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTroy Downing

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Troy Downing · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Troy Downing 97%
DEM Brian J. Miller 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+16 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 66.0% 2024 general · margin 32.0%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMillerINDEisenhauerLIBMccrackenREPDowning
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brian J. Miller$30,958.49
Michael D. Eisenhauer$354,191.13
Patrick McCrackenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Troy Downing$2,733,160.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brian J. Miller$28,854.45
Michael D. Eisenhauer$330,886.97
Patrick McCrackenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Troy Downing$2,098,042.93
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brian J. Miller$668.84
Michael D. Eisenhauer$23,304.16
Patrick McCrackenNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Troy Downing$746,647.91
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brian J. MillerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael D. EisenhauerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Patrick McCrackenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Troy DowningNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brian J. MillerR+16seat-level
Michael D. EisenhauerR+16seat-level
Patrick McCrackenR+16seat-level
Troy DowningR+16seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+16
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -16.407

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Troy DowningREP181,83265.99%
    John B. DriscollDEM93,71334.01%

    Total votes 275,545 · winning margin 31.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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