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DEMDemocratic nominee
Alani Bankheadlimited profile
open-seat nominee (Air Force lieutenant colonel)
won June 2, 2026 primary, 43.6%
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDIndependent
Seth Bodnarlimited profile
open-seat candidate (former University of Montana president)
qualified for the November ballot by petition (nearly 30,000 signatures, May 2026)
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPRepublican nominee
Kurt Almelimited profile
open-seat nominee (former U.S. Attorney for Montana)
won June 2, 2026 primary, 76.1%
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentSteve Daines (R) - withdrew March 5, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline; retiring
Why it is watchedIncluded as the cycle's three-way race; Cook still rates it Solid R (race page 'last updated Feb 11, 2025'); Inside Elections moved it from Solid R to Likely R on March 10, 2026 (Roll Call) and rates it Solid R as of Sept 3, 2026 (Wikipedia ratings table, read Sept 13, 2026). Daines dropped out at 5:02 p.m. on the March 5 filing deadline after former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme filed at 4:52 p.m., with Trump, Sen. Sheehy and Gov. Gianforte endorsing Alme the same night - a move Cook says was 'reportedly orchestrated' to keep a strong Democrat out (Cook analysis, March 5, 2026; Wikipedia citing NYT). Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, a West Point graduate and Green Beret, is running as an independent, qualified with nearly 30,000 signatures against a 13,327 requirement, and out-raised Alme in pre-primary filings ($2.1M to $1.1M total; Daily Montanan, May 26, 2026). Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead won the Democratic primary with 43.6%; Alme won the GOP primary with 76.1% (Wikipedia). Three-way polls through early August put Alme in the mid-40s with Bodnar second: Hart Research Aug 1-4 Alme 45 / Bodnar 30 / Bankhead 15; Tavern Research July 23-27 49/25/24; GQR July 23-26 41/27/22 (Wikipedia, 2026 Montana Senate election).
Also on the ballotKyle Austin (Libertarian) - Left off the card as a minor-party candidate. Ballot-qualified Libertarian nominee; total receipts $250,626.50 against $3,238,150.74 (Bodnar), $1,984,860.91 (Alme) and $58,829.06 (Bankhead) through the same 2026-06-30 coverage date, and he is not named in any of the three-way polls this file carries. His FEC summary money stays in this file.
Notes
- Three-way dynamic: Bodnar's pitch is anti-establishment ('D.C. insiders tried to rig this election in March by installing a handpicked candidate' - Fox News, June 2, 2026); every public three-way poll shows Bodnar ahead of the Democratic nominee for second place, which is what makes it a genuine three-way contest rather than a D-vs-R race.
- Wikipedia says Bodnar is backed by former Sen. Jon Tester; not independently confirmed this session (see unknowns).
- Rating re-checked Sept 13, 2026: Cook's race page refused automated fetch, so the Feb 11, 2025 'last updated' stands as filed; a secondary read (Wikipedia ratings table) still shows Cook Solid R as of Aug 20, 2026 and Inside Elections Solid R as of Sept 3, 2026.
Hume Outlook
97% Kurt Alme · RepublicanChance to win the seat, across the named field
REP
Kurt Alme
97%
DEM
Alani Bankhead
2%
IND
Seth Bodnar
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Alme 38.0% · Bankhead 10.0% · Bodnar 39.0%
Concord Public Opinion Partners / Democrats for Education Reform · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+10
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 55.0%
2020 general · margin 10.0%
Side by side
3 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMBankheadINDBodnarREPAlme
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Alani BankheadFRIENDS OF ALANI BANKHEADC00937201
Seth BodnarSETH BODNAR FOR MONTANAC00941708
Kurt AlmeALME FOR SENATEC00942060
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Alani Bankhead$190,539.71
Seth Bodnar$4,918,341.25
Kurt Alme$3,013,680.86
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Alani Bankhead$167,719.91
Seth Bodnar$4,337,420.34
Kurt Alme$2,410,943.10
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Alani Bankhead$22,819.80
Seth Bodnar$580,920.91
Kurt Alme$602,737.76
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Alani Bankhead10.0%Concord Public Opinion Partners · 2026-10-23
Seth Bodnar39.0%Concord Public Opinion Partners · 2026-10-23
Kurt Alme38.0%Concord Public Opinion Partners · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Alani BankheadR+10seat-level
Seth BodnarR+10seat-level
Kurt AlmeR+10seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Bankhead | Bodnar | Alme | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersDemocrats for Education Reform | 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=410 | 10.0% | 39.0% | 38.0% | Kyle Austin 2.0% |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=686 | 29.0% | 21.0% | 46.0% | Kyle Austin 2.0% |
| American Pulse Research & PollingKULR-TV | 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-24 | LV · n=604 | 19.0% | 26.0% | 45.0% | none |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15 | LV · n=625 | 23.0% | 24.0% | 44.0% | none |
| Hart Research AssociatesForward Montana | 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-04 | LV · n=800 | 15.0% | 30.0% | 45.0% | Kyle Austin 6.0% |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27 | LV · n=517 | not named | 45.0% | 50.0% | Kyle Austin 5.0% |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27 | LV · n=517 | not named | 49.0% | 51.0% | none |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27 | LV · n=517 | 36.0% | not named | 56.0% | Kyle Austin 8.0% |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27 | LV · n=517 | 24.0% | 25.0% | 49.0% | Kyle Austin 2.0% |
| Tavern Research | 2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27 | LV · n=517 | 22.0% | 27.0% | 49.0% | none |
15 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+10
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -9.914
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Daines | REP | 333,174 | 55.01% |
| Steve Bullock | DEM | 272,463 | 44.99% |
Total votes 605,637 · winning margin 10.02% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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