Race header
DEMNominee
Don Davis
incumbent
43%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Tom Bailey
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Laurie Buckhout
57%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDon Davis
Hume Outlook
57% Laurie Buckhout · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Laurie Buckhout
57%
DEM
Don Davis
43%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Davis 51.0% · Buckhout 41.0%
Neighborhood Research and Media · 2026-10-06
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMDavisLIBBaileyREPBuckhout
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Don Davis$5,805,482.43
Tom BaileyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Laurie Buckhout$4,787,737.24
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Don Davis$5,250,506.44
Tom BaileyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Laurie Buckhout$3,376,140.26
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Don Davis$825,817.73
Tom BaileyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Laurie Buckhout$1,437,900.53
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Don Davis51.0%Neighborhood Research and Media · 2026-10-06
Tom BaileyNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-06)
Laurie Buckhout41.0%Neighborhood Research and Media · 2026-10-06
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Don DavisNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tom BaileyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Laurie BuckhoutNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Davis | Bailey | Buckhout | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-06 | LV · n=303 | 51.0% | not named | 41.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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