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Race · U.S. House · North Carolina · 2026

North Carolina District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, North Carolina District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, North Carolina District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Raymond Smith
36%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Daniel Cavender
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Greg Murphy incumbent
64%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGreg Murphy

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
64% Greg Murphy · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Greg Murphy 64%
DEM Raymond Smith 36%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMSmithLIBCavenderREPMurphy
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Raymond Smith$366,580.83
Daniel CavenderNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Greg Murphy$2,897,749.02
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Raymond Smith$321,978.57
Daniel CavenderNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Greg Murphy$2,225,520.31
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Raymond Smith$44,282.09
Daniel CavenderNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Greg Murphy$2,255,691.00
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Raymond SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Daniel CavenderNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Greg MurphyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Raymond SmithNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Daniel CavenderNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Greg MurphyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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