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Race · U.S. House · North Carolina · 2026

North Carolina District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, North Carolina District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, North Carolina District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Chuck Hubbard
15%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Robert B. Luffman
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Virginia Foxx incumbent
85%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentVirginia Foxx

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
85% Virginia Foxx · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Virginia Foxx 85%
DEM Chuck Hubbard 15%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHubbardLIBLuffmanREPFoxx
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Chuck Hubbard$863,260.01
Robert B. LuffmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Virginia Foxx$2,189,052.01
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Chuck Hubbard$718,645.82
Robert B. LuffmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Virginia Foxx$1,610,250.42
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Chuck Hubbard$152,010.20
Robert B. LuffmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Virginia Foxx$3,490,070.17
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Chuck HubbardNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Robert B. LuffmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Virginia FoxxNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Chuck HubbardNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Robert B. LuffmanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Virginia FoxxNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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