Race header
DEMNominee
Cyril Jefferson
11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Addison McDowell
incumbent
89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAddison McDowell
Hume Outlook
89% Addison McDowell · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Addison McDowell
89%
DEM
Cyril Jefferson
11%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJeffersonREPMcdowell
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Cyril Jefferson$232,324.53
Addison McDowell$1,456,167.02
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Cyril Jefferson$224,465.46
Addison McDowell$1,310,517.40
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Cyril Jefferson$7,859.07
Addison McDowell$152,972.51
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Cyril JeffersonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Addison McDowellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Cyril JeffersonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Addison McDowellNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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