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DEMDemocratic nominee
Roy Cooperlimited profile
open-seat nominee (former Governor of North Carolina)
won March 3, 2026 primary, 92%
92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Michael Dublin
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Shannon W. Bray
—Not published for this candidate
REPRepublican nominee
Michael Whatleylimited profile
open-seat nominee (former RNC co-chair)
won March 3, 2026 primary, about 64%
8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentThom Tillis (R) - retiring
Why it is watchedCook calls this 'the GOP seat Democrats are most likely to flip' and moved it from Toss Up to Lean D on April 13, 2026 (Cook race page; Fox News, April 13, 2026) - the only Republican-held seat Cook rates in the Democratic column. Two-term former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election, took 92% in the March 3, 2026 Democratic primary; former RNC co-chair and state party chair Michael Whatley took about 64% of the GOP primary (WRAL, March 3-4, 2026). WRAL notes Democrats need a net gain of four seats and that this race is almost certainly essential to any Democratic majority.
Hume Outlook
92% Roy Cooper · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Roy Cooper
92%
REP
Michael Whatley
8%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Cooper 51.4% · Whatley 42.8% · Bray 1.3% · Dublin 0.7%
Quantus Insights · 2026-10-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+2
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 48.7%
2020 general · margin 1.8%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCooperGRNDublinLIBBrayREPWhatley
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Roy Cooper$49,585,341.29
Michael Dublin$28,230.84
Shannon W. BrayNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Whatley$13,668,467.53
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Roy Cooper$40,496,481.72
Michael Dublin$26,976.16
Shannon W. BrayNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Whatley$12,766,229.48
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Roy Cooper$9,088,859.57
Michael Dublin$2,996.04
Shannon W. BrayNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Whatley$902,238.05
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Roy Cooper51.4%Quantus Insights · 2026-10-25
Michael Dublin0.7%Quantus Insights · 2026-10-25
Shannon W. Bray1.3%Quantus Insights · 2026-10-25
Michael Whatley42.8%Quantus Insights · 2026-10-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Roy CooperR+2seat-level
Michael DublinR+2seat-level
Shannon W. BrayR+2seat-level
Michael WhatleyR+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Cooper | Dublin | Bray | Whatley | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-24 to 2026-10-25 | LV · n=722 | 51.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 42.8% | none |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=620 | 54.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 40.0% | none |
| Harper PollingCarolina Journal | 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=600 | 49.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 39.0% | none |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=400 | 56.9% | not named | not named | 43.1% | none |
| SurveyUSAWRAL-TV; WSOC-TV | 2026-10-07 to 2026-10-11 | LV · n=643 | 54.0% | not named | not named | 40.0% | none |
| Elon University/YouGov | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-08 | LV · n=561 | 52.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 39.0% | none |
| Change ResearchCarolina Forward | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07 | LV · n=829 | 50.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 40.0% | none |
| East Carolina University | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-03 | LV · n=810 | 53.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 46.0% | none |
| Big Data PollPublic Polling Project | 2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29 | LV · n=642 | 51.0% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 39.0% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 | LV · n=1,200 | 48.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 42.5% | none |
20 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -1.571
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thom Tillis | REP | 2,665,598 | 48.69% |
| Cal Cunningham | DEM | 2,569,965 | 46.94% |
| Shannon W. Bray | LIB | 171,571 | 3.13% |
| Kevin E. Hayes | OTH | 67,818 | 1.24% |
Total votes 5,474,952 · winning margin 1.75% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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