Influence no longer invisible Races · ND at-large House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · North Dakota · 2026

North Dakota at-large · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, North Dakota at-large

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, North Dakota at-large · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Trygve Hammer
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Charles Tuttle
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Helene Neville
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Julie Fedorchak incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJulie Fedorchak

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Julie Fedorchak · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Julie Fedorchak 99%
DEM Trygve Hammer 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+20 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 69.5% 2024 general · margin 39.0%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHammerINDTuttleINDNevilleREPFedorchak
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Trygve Hammer$370,969.00
Charles TuttleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Helene NevilleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Julie Fedorchak$2,107,166.08
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Trygve Hammer$328,860.24
Charles TuttleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Helene NevilleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Julie Fedorchak$1,661,648.29
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Trygve Hammer$42,108.76
Charles TuttleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Helene NevilleNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Julie Fedorchak$774,845.73
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Trygve HammerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Charles TuttleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Helene NevilleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Julie FedorchakNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Trygve HammerR+20seat-level
Charles TuttleR+20seat-level
Helene NevilleR+20seat-level
Julie FedorchakR+20seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+20
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -19.973

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Julie FedorchakREP249,10169.52%
    Trygve HammerDEM109,23130.48%

    Total votes 358,332 · winning margin 39.03% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.