Race header
DEMNominee
Chris Backemeyer
18%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Nik Sandman
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Dan Hartong
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mike Flood
incumbent
82%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Flood
Hume Outlook
82% Mike Flood · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Mike Flood
82%
DEM
Chris Backemeyer
18%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Flood 46.0% · Backemeyer 45.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+9
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 60.1%
2024 general · margin 20.2%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBackemeyerLIBSandmanOTHHartongREPFlood
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Chris Backemeyer$1,154,612.70
Nik SandmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan HartongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Flood$2,770,861.42
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Chris Backemeyer$799,446.75
Nik SandmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan HartongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Flood$2,131,738.08
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Chris Backemeyer$355,165.95
Nik SandmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Dan HartongNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Flood$859,905.11
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Chris Backemeyer45.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Nik SandmanNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Dan HartongNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Mike Flood46.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Chris BackemeyerR+9seat-level
Nik SandmanR+9seat-level
Dan HartongR+9seat-level
Mike FloodR+9seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Backemeyer | Sandman | Hartong | Flood | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=536 | 45.0% | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Global Strategy GroupFight for Nebraska | 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-03 | LV · n=600 | 49.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Tavern Research | 2026-05-16 to 2026-05-19 | LV · n=1,079 | 43.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Zenith Research | 2026-05-08 to 2026-05-11 | LV · n=371 | 38.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+9
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -8.885
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Flood | REP | 187,559 | 60.10% |
| Carol Blood | DEM | 124,498 | 39.90% |
Total votes 312,057 · winning margin 20.21% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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