Race header
DEMNominee
Denise Powell
87%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Eric Michael Foreman
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Brinker Harding
13%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
87% Denise Powell · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Denise Powell
87%
REP
Brinker Harding
13%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Powell 50.0% · Harding 38.0% · Foreman 6.0%
National Public Affairs · 2026-10-05
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
EVEN
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 50.9%
2024 general · margin 1.9%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPowellLIBForemanREPHarding
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Denise Powell$5,093,103.99
Eric Michael ForemanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brinker Harding$2,850,577.02
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Denise Powell$4,612,630.73
Eric Michael ForemanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brinker Harding$2,537,204.17
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Denise Powell$480,473.26
Eric Michael ForemanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Brinker Harding$313,372.85
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Denise Powell50.0%National Public Affairs · 2026-10-05
Eric Michael Foreman6.0%National Public Affairs · 2026-10-05
Brinker Harding38.0%National Public Affairs · 2026-10-05
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Denise PowellEVENseat-level
Eric Michael ForemanEVENseat-level
Brinker HardingEVENseat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Powell | Foreman | Harding | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-05 | LV · n=377 | 50.0% | 6.0% | 38.0% | none |
| SurveyUSAGrant Forbes; LLC | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-13 | LV · n=182 | 46.0% | not named | 42.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
EVEN
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -0.124
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Bacon | REP | 160,198 | 50.93% |
| Tony Vargas | DEM | 154,369 | 49.07% |
Total votes 314,567 · winning margin 1.85% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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