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Race · U.S. House · Nebraska · 2026

Nebraska District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Nebraska District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Nebraska District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Becky Kelly Stille
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Mark Cohen
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
David J. Else
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Macey Budke
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Adrian Smith incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAdrian Smith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Adrian Smith · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Adrian Smith 99%
DEM Becky Kelly Stille 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+29 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 80.4% 2024 general · margin 60.8%

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMStilleINDCohenOTHElseOTHBudkeREPSmith
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Becky Kelly Stille$97,390.36
Mark Cohen$75,900.50
David J. ElseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Macey Budke$6,347.29
Adrian Smith$2,246,593.11
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Becky Kelly Stille$97,440.29
Mark Cohen$63,753.57
David J. ElseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Macey Budke$6,021.14
Adrian Smith$2,073,259.02
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Becky Kelly Stille$-49.93
Mark Cohen$15,673.93
David J. ElseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Macey Budke$326.15
Adrian Smith$1,101,567.09
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Becky Kelly StilleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mark CohenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
David J. ElseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Macey BudkeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Adrian SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Becky Kelly StilleR+29seat-level
Mark CohenR+29seat-level
David J. ElseR+29seat-level
Macey BudkeR+29seat-level
Adrian SmithR+29seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+29
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -28.968

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Adrian SmithREP243,48180.42%
    Daniel EbersDEM59,28719.58%

    Total votes 302,768 · winning margin 60.84% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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