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Race header
INDOn the ballot
Dan Osborn
42%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Chuck Conboy
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Mike Marvin
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Robin Richards
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Pete Ricketts
incumbent
58%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentPete Ricketts
Hume Outlook
58% Pete Ricketts · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Pete Ricketts
58%
IND
Dan Osborn
42%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Ricketts 47.0% · Osborn 46.0% · Richards 2.0% · Conboy 1.0%
Echelon Insights / NetChoice · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+10
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 67.4%
2020 general · margin 41.1%
Side by side
5 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureINDOsbornOTHConboyOTHMarvinOTHRichardsREPRicketts
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Dan Osborn$11,029,845.41through 2026-10-14
Chuck Conboy$0.02through 2026-10-14
Mike Marvin$27,750.00through 2026-09-11
Robin Richards$0.00through 2026-10-14
Pete Ricketts$14,546,959.40through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Dan Osborn$9,139,828.03through 2026-10-14
Chuck Conboy$88.32through 2026-10-14
Mike Marvin$27,750.00through 2026-09-11
Robin Richards$0.00through 2026-10-14
Pete Ricketts$13,815,789.54through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Dan Osborn$1,953,183.30through 2026-10-14
Chuck Conboy$-88.30through 2026-10-14
Mike Marvin$0.00through 2026-09-11
Robin Richards$0.00through 2026-10-14
Pete Ricketts$1,218,138.97through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Dan Osborn46.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Chuck Conboy1.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Mike MarvinNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-23)
Robin Richards2.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Pete Ricketts47.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Dan OsbornR+10seat-level
Chuck ConboyR+10seat-level
Mike MarvinR+10seat-level
Robin RichardsR+10seat-level
Pete RickettsR+10seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Osborn | Conboy | Marvin | Richards | Ricketts | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon InsightsNetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=407 | 46.0% | 1.0% | not named | 2.0% | 47.0% | none |
| National Public Affairs | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=598 | 47.0% | not named | not named | not named | 50.0% | none |
| National Public Affairs | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-05 | LV · n=800 | 46.0% | not named | not named | not named | 49.0% | none |
| GBAO StrategiesWorking Class Majority PAC | 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-08 | LV · n=800 | 47.0% | not named | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+10
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -10.464
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Sasse | REP | 583,507 | 67.39% |
| Chris Janicek | DEM | 227,191 | 26.24% |
| Gene Siadek | LIB | 55,115 | 6.37% |
Total votes 865,813 · winning margin 41.15% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 11, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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