NH-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Stefany Shaheen

90%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Anthony DiLorenzo

10%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

90% Stefany Shaheen · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Stefany Shaheen 90%

REP Anthony DiLorenzo 10%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Shaheen 46.0% · Dilorenzo 42.0% Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20

Seat lean (Hume PVI) EVEN as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 54.0% 2024 general · margin 8.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMShaheenREPDilorenzo

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Stefany Shaheen$3,247,792.08

Anthony DiLorenzo$6,762,643.49

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Stefany Shaheen$2,977,059.58

Anthony DiLorenzo$5,778,849.63

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Stefany Shaheen$270,732.50

Anthony DiLorenzo$983,793.86

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Stefany Shaheen46.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20

Anthony DiLorenzo42.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Stefany ShaheenEVENseat-level

Anthony DiLorenzoEVENseat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-20

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Shaheen	Dilorenzo	Others
Saint Anselm	2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20	LV · n=861	46.0%	42.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

EVEN

Lean (D minus R, points): -0.210

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Chris Pappas	DEM	218,577	54.03%
Russell Prescott	REP	185,936	45.97%

Total votes 404,513 · winning margin 8.07% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.