Race header
DEMNominee
Maggie Goodlander
incumbent
89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Robbie Mahrou
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Lily Tang Williams
11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMaggie Goodlander
Hume Outlook
89% Maggie Goodlander · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Maggie Goodlander
89%
REP
Lily Tang Williams
11%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Goodlander 54.0% · Williams 38.0%
Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+2
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
DEM 53.0%
2024 general · margin 6.0%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGoodlanderINDMahrouREPWilliams
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Maggie Goodlander$5,012,908.51
Robbie MahrouNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lily Tang Williams$1,443,795.73
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Maggie Goodlander$3,249,343.67
Robbie MahrouNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lily Tang Williams$1,101,045.38
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Maggie Goodlander$1,821,562.69
Robbie MahrouNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lily Tang Williams$472,229.95
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Maggie Goodlander54.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
Robbie MahrouNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Lily Tang Williams38.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Maggie GoodlanderD+2seat-level
Robbie MahrouD+2seat-level
Lily Tang WilliamsD+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
4 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Goodlander | Mahrou | Williams | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=861 | 54.0% | not named | 38.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=702 | 56.0% | 3.0% | 35.0% | none |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 | LV · n=701 | 50.0% | not named | 35.0% | none |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-25 | RV · n=1,614 | 50.0% | not named | 31.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +1.524
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Goodlander | DEM | 211,641 | 52.98% |
| Lily Tang Williams | REP | 187,810 | 47.02% |
Total votes 399,451 · winning margin 5.97% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.