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CONOn the ballot
Edmond Laplante
—Not published for this candidate
DEMDemocratic nominee
Chris Pappas
open-seat candidate (sitting U.S. Representative, NH-1)
won the Sept 8, 2026 primary, 65.1% to 32.7%
91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPRepublican nominee
John E. Sununu
open-seat candidate (former U.S. Senator, 2003-2009)
won the Sept 8, 2026 primary, 68.4% to 26.8%
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJeanne Shaheen (D) - retiring
Why it is watchedRated Lean D since Cook's first 2026 ratings on Feb 11, 2025, but Cook's summary says Republicans are 'bullish' after polling showed a statistical tie between Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu (Cook race page). The Sept 8, 2026 primaries set the general-election ballot: Pappas won the Democratic nomination over democratic-socialist challenger Karishma Manzur, 65.1% to 32.7%, and Sununu won the Republican nomination over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 68.4% to 26.8% (both called by the Associated Press at 8:05 p.m. EDT, per NHPR; percentages from NBC News' results page at 99% of the expected vote, read Sept 13, 2026). Pappas had out-raised Manzur roughly $13 million to $206,000 before the primary (Spectrum News, Aug 28, 2026). Republicans have not won a New Hampshire Senate race since 2010 (Wikipedia).
Notes
- Nominees set by the Sept 8, 2026 primaries: Chris Pappas (D) and John E. Sununu (R), both called by the Associated Press at 8:05 p.m. EDT (NHPR live results, read Sept 13, 2026). Karishma Manzur and Scott Brown lost their primaries and are off the card; the other filed candidates each took about 1% or less (NBC News results page at 99% of the expected vote) and were never profiled here.
- Inside Elections moved the race from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up on Sept 10, 2026 (Roll Call); the rating shown here is Cook's, whose race page refused automated fetch on Sept 13, 2026, so its Feb 11, 2025 'last updated' stands as filed (a secondary read, Wikipedia's ratings table, still shows Lean D as of Aug 20, 2026).
Hume Outlook
91% Chris Pappas · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Chris Pappas
91%
REP
John E. Sununu
9%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Pappas 50.0% · Sununu 43.0%
Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+2
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 56.7%
2020 general · margin 15.7%
Side by side
3 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureCONLaplanteDEMPappasREPSununu
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Edmond LaplanteNot available No principal committee linkage in the data file
Chris PappasCHRIS PAPPAS FOR SENATEC00660464
John E. SununuSUNUNU SENATORC00924092
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Edmond LaplanteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Pappas$23,703,648.39
John E. Sununu$5,681,528.08
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Edmond LaplanteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Pappas$22,126,866.80
John E. Sununu$3,936,990.86
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Edmond LaplanteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris Pappas$1,984,365.82
John E. Sununu$1,711,396.49
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Edmond LaplanteNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-20)
Chris Pappas50.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
John E. Sununu43.0%Saint Anselm · 2026-10-20
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Edmond LaplanteD+2seat-level
Chris PappasD+2seat-level
John E. SununuD+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Laplante | Pappas | Sununu | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=1,672 | not named | 50.0% | 43.0% | none |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=600 | 4.0% | 48.0% | 41.0% | none |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-22 | LV · n=613 | not named | 50.0% | 45.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-21 | LV · n=1,418 | 2.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | none |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 | LV · n=1,200 | not named | 48.0% | 40.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-24 | LV · n=1,878 | not named | 43.0% | 45.0% | none |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 | LV · n=1,411 | not named | 48.0% | 41.0% | none |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-25 | RV · n=1,614 | not named | 47.0% | 41.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-18 to 2026-06-23 | LV · n=2,232 | not named | 47.0% | 44.0% | none |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-21 | LV · n=1,295 | not named | 49.0% | 42.0% | none |
11 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+2
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +1.934
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanne Shaheen | DEM | 450,778 | 56.67% |
| Corky Messner | REP | 326,229 | 41.01% |
| Justin O'Donnell | LIB | 18,421 | 2.32% |
Total votes 795,428 · winning margin 15.66% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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