NJ-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Donald Norcross incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Damon Galdo

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentDonald Norcross

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Donald Norcross · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Donald Norcross 97%

REP Damon Galdo 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+10 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 57.8% 2024 general · margin 17.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMNorcrossREPGaldo

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Donald Norcross$1,950,972.75

Damon Galdo$16,219.73

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Donald Norcross$1,293,702.06

Damon Galdo$15,516.24

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Donald Norcross$2,364,759.02

Damon Galdo$772.28

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Donald NorcrossNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Damon GaldoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Donald NorcrossD+10seat-level

Damon GaldoD+10seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+10

Lean (D minus R, points): +10.115

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Donald Norcross	DEM	208,808	57.83%
Theodore “Teddy” Liddell	REP	144,390	39.99%
Robin Brownfield	GRN	5,771	1.60%
Austin Johnson	OTH	2,091	0.58%

Total votes 361,060 · winning margin 17.84% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.