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Race · U.S. House · New Jersey · 2026

New Jersey District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New Jersey District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Herb Conaway incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Steven Welzer
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Ryan Michael Kelly
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael P. McGuire
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentHerb Conaway

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
97% Herb Conaway · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Herb Conaway 97%
REP Michael P. McGuire 3%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+5 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 53.2% 2024 general · margin 8.6%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMConawayGRNWelzerOTHKellyREPMcguire
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Herb Conaway$1,152,632.36
Steven WelzerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan Michael Kelly$5,725.29
Michael P. McGuire$221,324.29
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Herb Conaway$753,730.39
Steven WelzerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan Michael Kelly$4,963.76
Michael P. McGuire$204,748.93
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Herb Conaway$436,316.31
Steven WelzerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ryan Michael Kelly$761.53
Michael P. McGuire$16,575.36
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Herb ConawayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Steven WelzerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ryan Michael KellyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael P. McGuireNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Herb ConawayD+5seat-level
Steven WelzerD+5seat-level
Ryan Michael KellyD+5seat-level
Michael P. McGuireD+5seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+5
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +5.009

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Herb ConawayDEM202,03453.24%
    Rajesh MohanREP169,45444.65%
    Steven WelzerGRN3,4780.92%
    Chris RussomannoLIB1,9510.51%
    Douglas Anthony WynnOTH1,3320.35%
    Justin R. BarberaOTH1,2350.33%

    Total votes 379,484 · winning margin 8.59% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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