NJ-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Rachel Peace

4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Christopher H. Smith incumbent

96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentChristopher H. Smith

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

96% Christopher H. Smith · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Christopher H. Smith 96%

DEM Rachel Peace 4%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 67.4% 2024 general · margin 35.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMPeaceREPSmith

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Rachel Peace$101,425.72

Christopher H. Smith$797,217.22

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Rachel Peace$86,994.28

Christopher H. Smith$608,265.10

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Rachel Peace$14,431.44

Christopher H. Smith$553,017.29

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Rachel PeaceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Christopher H. SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Rachel PeaceR+13seat-level

Christopher H. SmithR+13seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+13

Lean (D minus R, points): -13.495

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Christopher H. Smith	REP	265,652	67.39%
Matthew Jenkins	DEM	124,803	31.66%
John Morrison	LIB	1,950	0.49%
Barry Bendar	GRN	1,823	0.46%

Total votes 394,228 · winning margin 35.73% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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